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The numbers are in, and it's unanimous--the University of Massachusetts Poll is a winner. The poll, which is based in UMass Boston's John W. McCormack Institute of Public Affairs, was remarkably accurate in tracking voter trends leading up to the 2000 New Hampshire presidential primaries this year. It gathered information through telephone interviews of likely Republican and Democratic voters.
Recognized for its precision, the UMass Poll was the first, and sometimes only, tracking poll to identify major shifts in voting trends. For instance, it was the only major tracking poll to identify Vice President Al Gore's incredible one week turn-around. After being behind in New Hampshire by 10 points, the Vice President made a 22 point jump between January 19 and 25, and the poll correctly anticipated this change. In addition, the poll detected former Senator Bill Bradley's final rush, which made the race too close to call.
The UMass Poll was widely acclaimed by the media. The Boston Globe reported that its June 1999 quarterly poll of Massachusetts voters was the first in the country to recognize Bill Bradley's first surge against Al Gore last year. During the final weekend of the New Hampshire race CNN's William Schneider reported UMass Poll results showing a 15 point margin for Senator John McCain. At that point, all of the other polls put Senator McCain's lead in the low single digits, but he eventually went on to win by 19 points. In addition, Poll director Lou DiNatale was quoted extensively in post-election press analyses, which included a page one story in the February 13 New York Times Week in Review.
According to its mission statement, the UMass Poll has, since 1997, "conducted public opinion polls that analyze current and long-term voter trends concerning state and local public policy, including political, fiscal, taxation, housing, and economic development issues." Director Lou DiNatale is a McCormack Institute senior fellow, and is also director of the Institute's State and Local Policy Center. The poll receives additional support from the University's Donahue Institute. If this year is any indicator, the UMass Poll can look forward to continued success in the future.
Internet users can visit the UMass Poll's website at: http://www.umasspoll.org.