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By Anne-Marie Kent
Policymakers,
businesspeople, and other decision-makers depend on accurate economic
analysis to predict future trends and make important choices, particularly
in difficult times. Professor Alan Clayton-Matthews provides quarterly
analysis of trends in the Massachusetts economy, recently published
in the UMass system-wide publication Benchmarks. Clayton-Matthews is
director of quantitative methods in the Public Policy Program at the
University of Massachusetts Boston, and president of the New England
Economic Project (NEEP), a member-supported, non-profit organization
dedicated to providing objective economic analyses and forecasts.
In the fall 2001 issue of Benchmarks, Clayton-Matthews issued a sobering report. “The outlook for the second half of this year is for continued weakness, with very slow growth at best,” wrote Clayton-Matthews. “A moderate decline in output and employment is more probable than not.” The report cites a loss of 12,900 Massachusetts manufacturing jobs between December and July, nearly 3 percent of manufacturing payroll employment. This is the third major decline in manufacturing employment since the mid-1980s.
“The recession in Massachusetts appears to have begun last December,” explains Clayton-Matthews. “The state’s economy is still contracting, with sharp increases in layoffs in recent months, falling tax revenues, declining exports, and continuing declines in manufacturing production.”
Not all the news is bad, however. Clayton-Matthews says, “So far, however, the recession has been mild, and although there are no clear signs yet that the bottom has been reached, there are several signs that at least the pace of contraction is slowing.” Clayton-Matthews points to continued strengths in residential real estate, construction, finance, education, hospitals, and medical sciences, which includes medical device manufacturing, pharmaceuticals, and biotechnology. These sectors have contributed enough employment gains and income to keep Massachusetts from falling into a full-blown recession.
Clayton-Matthews’ current research includes the development of composite indexes of economic activity and considers the relationship between demographic trends and economic growth in New England, the links between traditional and high-tech manufacturing in Massachusetts, and the cost of various paid family leave proposals and related family leave dynamics. Clayton-Matthews regularly offers expert commentary to the media and teaches quantitative methods at UMass Boston.
His reports are read widely by policymakers and local economic leaders. “Clayton-Matthews’ analyses of the Massachusetts economy are very insightful. I refer to them often,” says Lynn E. Browne, executive vice president and director of research at the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston. “They combine sophisticated econometric techniques with a practical, down-to-earth understanding of how the Massachusetts economy works. His write-ups effectively highlight the important economic issues facing decision-makers in the public and private sectors.”