Higher Voter Turnout Near Certain In 2004

Young Adults and Independents Reversing 30 Year Trend, Massachusetts Leading the Way

Young adults are substantially more involved in the 2004 presidential race than they were in the 2000 race. If the trend continues, higher turnout in November is nearly a certainty according to a national survey conducted by Harvard's Vanishing Voter Project and a Massachusetts survey conducted by The University of Massachusetts Poll.

The survey was released today at the Center on Media and Society at UMass Boston, during the day-long conference "Dangerous Intersection: Where Media and Public Policy Collide," which was sponsored by the John D. McCormack Graduate School of Policy Studies and Fleet Bank, a Bank of America company.

"We haven't seen this kind of interest in young adults and independents since Vietnam was the issue," said UMass Poll director Lou DiNatale, the director of the Center for State and Local Policy at the McCormack Graduate School.

A key to understanding the heightened interest of young adults in this year's election is their belief that the stakes are high, said DiNatale. Massachusetts's young adults have some of the highest interest levels in the country.

In Massachusetts, of the young adults 18-30 years old surveyed by the UMass Poll, 78 percent think the 2004 election will impact the future of the country "quite a bit" or "a great deal". Across the country, 57 percent of the respondents felt that way when surveyed by the Vanishing Voter Project.

"Studies show that, if young adults vote in one of the first two or three presidential elections in which they are eligible, they are likely to vote with some frequency throughout the rest of their adult lives," said conference participant Thomas E. Patterson, Bradlee Professor of Government and the Press at Harvard University and author of The Vanishing Voter.

Young adults account for much of the decline in electoral participation and interest during recent decades, according to DiNatale and Patterson. Their turnout rate in the 1972 general election was nearly 50 percent. In 2000, it was barely above 30 percent.

The polling data from this week's survey by the UMass Poll show interest across the country in this year's election among independents is up sharply from 2002, with Massachusetts leading the trend.

"Simply put, more Independents believe the stakes are higher in this year's election," said DiNatale.

In 2002, just 19 percent felt the next election would impact the future of the country "a great deal or quite a bit". Today, 44 percent of the Independents polled by the Harvard project believe so. In Massachusetts, 65 percent of the large Independent voting block believes the stakes are high during the 2004 presidential election.

The Vanishing Voter Project is a study by the Joan Shorenstein Center on the Press, Politics and Public Policy at Harvard University's John F. Kennedy School of Government. The project seeks to promote awareness of and participation in the electoral process.

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UMass Boston's Center on Media and Society

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